World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: Revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
The Lancet Global Health Sep 24, 2019
Kaptoge S, Pennells L, De Bacquer D, et al. - Through a model revision initiative that involved 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration of 376,177 individuals, experts reported the derivation, verification, and demonstration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that had been adapted to the conditions of 21 global regions. For a given risk factor profile, in the estimated 10-year predicted risk, substantial change across global regions was discovered. For eg, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L varied from 11% to 30% in Andean Latin America and in Central Asia, respectively. The proportion of individuals aged 40–64 years estimated to be at bigger than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt when employed to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries). In conclusion, new WHO risk prediction models to predict cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions, have been derived, calibrated, and verified. The widespread use of these models could improve the exactitude, potentiality, and sustainability of efforts to decrease the burden of cardiovascular disease globally.
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