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Three quarters of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection are asymptomatic: Analysis of English household survey data

Clinical Epidemiology Oct 13, 2020

Petersen I, Phillips A., et al. - Using Data from the Office for National Statistics Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot study, this study attempted to assess the value of COVID-19 symptoms as a marker for SARS-CoV-2 infection. The sensitivity, specificity, the proportion of asymptomatic cases (1 – sensitivity), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value of COVID-19 symptoms as a marker of infection were calculated using results of the SARS-CoV-2 test as the “gold standard.” Between April 26 and June 27, 2020, there were 36,061 individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 test, 625 (1.7%) of whom reported symptoms on the day of the test. Of these, 115 (0.32%) had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, 27 (23.5%) of whom were symptomatic and 88 (76.5%) of whom were asymptomatic on the day of the test. The data reveal that COVID-19 symptoms are poor markers of SARS-CoV-2. According to the outcomes, 76.5% of this random sample who tested positive reported no symptoms, and 86.1% reported no symptoms specific to COVID-19. It is necessary for a more widespread testing program to capture “silent” transmission and potentially prevent and reduce future outbreaks.

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