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The projected impact of geographic targeting of oral cholera vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa: A modeling study

PLoS Medicine Dec 19, 2019

Lee EC, Azman AS, Kaminsky J, et al. - Considering a recent resolution declared by World Health Assembly committing to decrease cholera mortality by 90% by 2030 thereby raising the significance of determining how geographic targeting of routine mass cholera vaccination campaigns can maximize the health impact and cost-effectiveness of these programs, researchers constructed a phenomenological model that analyzes the predicted health impacts and cost-effectiveness for different vaccination campaign targeting policies across sub-Saharan Africa from 2018 to 2030. Previous high-resolution estimates of cholera incidence were used in the model and estimates for direct and indirect vaccine effects and population changes over time were determined. The results imply that vaccine use alone is inefficacious in aiding the achievement of the 2030 goal. The model suggests significantly more effectiveness of targeting vaccination to districts based on historical cholera burden than targeting districts based on indicators of access to water and sanitation infrastructure. Targeting vaccination campaigns geographically may lead to a higher improvement in cost-effectiveness than increasing vaccine supply or vaccination coverage.
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