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Statistical methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence based on data from Guangxi, China

BMC Infectious Diseases Apr 28, 2020

Zheng Y, Zhang L, Wang L, et al. - In view of much higher incidence of TB in Guangxi province than that in the national level, researchers here developed TB prediction model [the SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model] by Box-Jenkins methods for predicting the TB incidence in Guangxi, which may aid in the prevention and control of TB. They constructed the model on the basis of TB incidence in Guangxi from January 2012 to June 2019 and used root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to test the performance and prediction accuracy of model. From January 2012 to June 2019, they identified reporting of a total of 587,344 TB cases and death was reported of 879 cases in Guangxi. Per observations, the SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model had very small RMSE, MAE and MAPE, which suggested that the model was successful, its prediction accuracy was high, and its prediction performance was good. Based on SARIMA((2),0,(2))(0,1,0)12 model, the detected TB incidence in Guangxi from July 2019 to December 2020 suggested that there will be slight decrease in the TB incidence, and its changing trend will be similar to before. The prediction outcomes may aid in reallocating resources so as to attain better control and prevention of TB in Guangxi, China.

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