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Risk score for predicting mortality including urine lipoarabinomannan detection in hospital inpatients with HIV-associated tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: Derivation and external validation cohort study

PLoS Medicine Apr 12, 2019

Gupta-Wright A, et al. - Because HIV-associated tuberculosis (HIV/TB) is very common in hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa and is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, researchers wanted to create and validate externally a tool using urinary lipoarabinomannan and other clinical variables available in high-burden settings that could predict which HIV-positive patients diagnosed with TB were at high risk of early mortality. Data from HIV-positive adults hospitalized in Malawi and South Africa and diagnosed with TB were used to create a simple clinical risk score to find patients with a 50% chance of death within 2 months. Between January 2013 and August 2015, 644 patients were included in the validation cohort. Investigators developed and externally validated a 6-factor clinical risk score capable of identifying those with the highest risk of early mortality among patients admitted to hospital in settings with high HIV/TB burden. This score could be a useful clinical and research tool and could be beneficial in identifying patients who would gain the most from adjunctive mortality reduction interventions.

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