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Predictors of sudden cardiac death in high-risk patients following a myocardial infarction

European Journal of Heart Failure Jan 29, 2020

Docherty KF, Ferreira JP, Sharma A, et al. - Researchers sought to generate a risk model for sudden cardiac death (SCD) in high-risk acute myocardial infarction (AMI) survivors using data from the Effect of Carvedilol on Outcome After Myocardial Infarction in Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction trial and the Valsartan in Acute Myocardial Infarction Trial. They developed the model with non-SCD as a competing risk in 13,202 patients. For SCD, independent predictive factors were age > 70 years; heart rate ≥ 70 bpm; smoking; Killip class III/IV; left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 30%; atrial fibrillation; history of prior myocardial infarction, heart failure or diabetes; estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2; and no coronary reperfusion or revascularisation therapy for index AMI. The model was well calibrated and displayed good discrimination, including in the early period after AMI. A steep increase was seen in the observed 2-year event rates with each quintile of risk score (1.9%, 3.6%, 6.2%, 9.0%, 13.4%, respectively). This easy to use SCD risk score was identified as superior to left ventricular ejection fraction. This score seems valuable for recognizing patients for future trials testing treatments to prevent SCD early after AMI.
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