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Predictors of low risk for dropout from the liver transplant waiting list for hepatocellular carcinoma in long wait time regions: Implications for organ allocation

American Journal of Transplantation Mar 17, 2019

Mehta N, et al. - From the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) database, researchers analyzed 2052 patients with T2 hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) receiving priority listing from 2011-2014 in long wait time regions 1, 5, and 9, to determine the predictors of low risk for dropout from the liver transplant waiting list for hepatocellular carcinoma. Observations suggest waitlist dropout probability of 18.3% at 1 year and 27% at 2 years. As per the multivariate analysis, a lower risk of waitlist dropout was evident in correlation with factors such as MELD-Na <15, Child's class A, single 2-3cm lesion, and AFP <20 ng/ml. The 1-year probability of dropout of 5.5% was noted for the subgroup of 245 patients (11.9%) meeting these 4 criteria at liver transplantation (LT) listing compared to 20% observed for all others. On explant, the low dropout risk group showed complete tumor necrosis more frequently (35.5% vs 24.9%) and exceeded Milan criteria less frequently (9.9% vs 17.7%).
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