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Prediction of incident heart failure by serum amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level in a community-based cohort

European Journal of Heart Failure Jan 25, 2019

Campbell DJ, et al. - In a community-based population at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, researchers looked for serum amino-terminal pro-B-type-natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels that could inform heart failure (HF) risk. Only subjects with age ≥ 60 years with one or more of self-reported hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, abnormal heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, or renal impairment were included and those with known HF, ejection fraction (EF) < 50%, or more than mild valve abnormality were excluded. At a median of 4.5 years after enrolment, 162 of 3842 participants developed HF, 73 with HF with preserved EF (HFpEF), 53 with HF with reduced EF (HFrEF), and 36 with valvular HF (VHF). For 5-year prediction of total HF in men and women, sensitivities > 76% and specificities of 47–69% were displayed by NT-proBNP cut-points of 11, 16, and 25 pmol/L for individuals aged 60–69, 70–79, and ≥ 80 years, respectively, in all three age groups. Overall, in individuals at increased CVD risk, age-specific serum NT-proBNP levels informed prognosis as well as therapeutic decisions regarding HF risk.
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