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Predicting atrial fibrillation using a combination of genetic risk score and clinical risk factors

Heart Rhythm Feb 13, 2020

Okubo Y, Nakano Y, Ochi H, et al. - This study was undertaken to develop a combined risk assessment method including both genetic and clinical factors for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) in the Japanese population. A cohort of 540 AF patients and 520 non-AF controls were screened for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously linked with AF by genome-wide association studies. For validation, 1,018 non-AF Japanese individuals were enrolled and were monitored for AF emergence over several years. After Bonferroni correction, 5 SNPs (in PRRX1, ZFHX3, PITX2, HAND2, and NEURL1) were identified to be associated with AF. Calculation of a weighted genetic risk score (WGRS) using these 5 SNPs was done and a 4.92-fold difference in AF risk was identified between the highest and lowest WGRS. Relative to using WGRS alone, the predictive logistic model constructed using a combination of WGRS and AF clinical risk factors (age, body mass index, gender, and hypertension) showed better discrimination of AF in the Japanese population.
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