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Nomogram for predicting overall survival in stage II-III colorectal cancer

Cancer Medicine Feb 12, 2020

Liu J, Huang X, Yang W, et al. - Given a wide variation in the overall survival (OS) of patients diagnosed with stage II-III colorectal cancer (CRC), even between patients with the same tumor stage, researchers sought to create a nomogram that may assist in predicting OS in resected, stage II-III CRC and in stratifying patients with CRC into different risk groups. They assess data from 873 patients with CRC and used univariate Cox regression analysis to decide the significant prognostic features, which were subjected to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm for feature selection. The independent prognostic factors by LASSO regression were preoperative mean platelet volume, preoperative platelet distribution width, monocytes, and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy; these factors were integrated for the construction of the nomogram. Good discrimination was achieved with the nomogram, with C-indices of 0.67 and 0.69 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Excellent agreement was observed in calibration plots between the nomogram predictions and actual observations for 3- and 5-year OS. Moreover, patients stratified into different risk groups exhibited a significant difference in OS. These findings support the value of this nomogram in facilitating physicians to accurately estimate the individual survival of postoperative patients and identify high-risk patients who need more aggressive treatment and follow-up strategies.
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