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How valid are projections of the future prevalence of diabetes? Rapid reviews of prevalence-based and Markov chain models and comparisons of different models projections for England

BMJ Open Mar 09, 2020

Bevan G, De Poli C, Keng MJ, et al. – Researchers assessed the validity of prevalence-based models projecting the prevalence of diabetes in adults, in England and the United Kingdom, and of Markov chain models estimating economic impacts of interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes (T2D). The prevalence-based models examined used sample assessments of past prevalence rates by age and sex, and projected population changes. This study included the adult population in England and the United Kingdom. The main outcome measure was the prevalence of T2D in England and the United Kingdom in 2025. According to the researchers, to inform national policies on preventing T2D, governments require validated models, designed to use available data, which determine the scale of incidence of T2D and survival in the general population, with and without preventive interventions.

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