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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

The Lancet HIV Dec 11, 2019

Frank TD, Carter A, Jahagirdar D, et al. - Results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 have been presented in this Article. Researchers here addressed the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980–2017 and further, they forecasted these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Based on the availability and quality of data, they determined a modeling strategy for each country. In 2006, the highest global HIV mortality was observed with 1·95 million deaths and since then, it declined to 0·95 million deaths in 2017. In 1999, the highest number of new cases of HIV were reported globally (3·16 million, 2·79–3·67) and since then there was a gradual decrease to 1·94 million (1·63–2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have led to a global rise in prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8–39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Southern sub-Saharan Africa showed the highest prevalence of HIV in 2017, and ART coverage in countries in this region ranged from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. As per the forecasts, the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage will be met in 54 countries by 2020 and there are 12 countries that are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Based on forecasted results, it is predicted that only a few countries will reach the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. The primary indicators of progress are trends in new infections and mortality, and there was a slower decrease in HIV incidence than mortality over the past decade. These findings emphasize the necessity for accelerating decreases to achieve global targets.
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