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External validation of the updated ADO score in COPD patients from the Birmingham COPD Cohort

International Journal of COPD Oct 31, 2019

Keene SJ, Jordan RE, Franssen FME, et al. - Researchers selected 1,892 chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) cases from 71 United Kingdom general practices as component of the Birmingham COPD Cohort study, to validate the ADO score in prevalent and screen-detected primary care COPD cases at 3 years and at shorter time periods. The included cases were selected from the practice COPD register or were screen-detected. Validation was sought for the ADO score with regard to the ability to predict 3-year mortality with 1-year and 2-year mortality as secondary endpoints. This was done using discrimination (area-under-the-curve) and calibration plots. In a primary care population involving screen-detected cases, promising discrimination was demonstrated by the ADO score for predicting 3-year mortality. There may be a requirement to recalibrate it if used to offer risk predictions for 1- or 2-year mortality because over-prediction was seen in these time-periods, particularly in cases with higher predicted mortality risks.
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