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External validation of a risk prediction model for ventricular arrhythmias in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

Canadian Journal of Cardiology Mar 09, 2021

Baudinaud P, Laredo M, Badenco N, et al. - In this study, the goal was to externally validate the new 5-years ventricular arrhythmia (VA) occurrence risk model in a European tertiary care cohort comprising 128 ARVC patients with restrictive indications for primary prophylaxis implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) placement. In the sample, 74% were males, VA history was present in none and a single patient had an ICD at baseline. A median follow-up of 7.8 years was conducted. Good discrimination was afforded by the model, and C-index was 0.84 for 5-year VA risk prediction. According to findings, detection of ARVC patients with VA during follow-up was successfully achieved using the ARVC model for VA prediction applied in this relatively large European ARVC cohort with restrictive indications for ICD placement. Owing to the model’s associated risk overestimation in low- to intermediate-risk cases, the necessity for careful threshold selection is emphasized.

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