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Estimating population-based recurrence rates of colorectal cancer over time in the United States

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention Nov 05, 2020

Kunst N, Alarid-Escudero F, Aas E, et al. - Researchers sought to obtain the population-based colorectal cancer recurrence rates utilizing disease-specific survival data based on the understanding of the colorectal cancer recurrence-death process. Utilizing relative survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program, they obtained population-based annual colorectal cancer recurrence rates from 6 months to 10 years after colorectal cancer diagnosis employing a statistical continuous-time multistate survival model. Basis of the model was the assumption that all colorectal cancer–related deaths after 6 months of diagnosis occur only in patients who experience a metastatic recurrence first, and that the annual colorectal cancer–specific death rate among patients with recurrence was the same as in those diagnosed with de novo metastatic disease. From 1975 to 1984, the diagnosed patients had annual recurrence rates 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis ranging from 0.054 to 0.060 in stage II colon cancer, 0.094 to 0.105 in stage II rectal cancer, and 0.146 to 0.177 in stage III colorectal cancer, depending on age. Patients diagnosed in 1994–2003 had a statistically significant decrease in colorectal cancer recurrence compared with those diagnosed in 1975–1984 for 6 months to 5 years after diagnosis. These estimates can be employed in decision-analytic models to aid analyses of colorectal cancer interventions that are more generalizable.

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