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Development of a prognostic tool exploring female adolescent risk for HIV prevention and PrEP in rural South Africa, a generalised epidemic setting

Sexually Transmitted Infections Jul 25, 2019

Ayton SG, et al. - Researchers investigated whether HIV risk among adolescent girls could be assessed by modifying the validated risk calculators, which calculate HIV risk among sub-Saharan African women. In addition, they evaluated the performance of selected risk variables from validated calculators and the literature among adolescent females using modern advanced statistical tools. From the CAPRISA 007 (CAP007) trial (2010–2012) questionnaires, they selected risk variables for the updated tool. Two key latent factors were identified with exploratory factor analysis: sexual behavior and socioeconomic risk factors. Contraception use, perceived HIV risk, and pregnancy were impacted by latent sexual behavior risk. Low HIV knowledge, financial dependence, prior HIV testing, and alcohol use were affected by latent socioeconomic risk. Using latent class analysis, those with no, low and high risk of HIV (1.10%, 2.26% and 2.91% 1-year seroconversion rates, respectively) were identified. Higher risk class membership was observed in significant correlation with herpes simplex virus serotype-2, condom contraception, alcohol use, pregnancy and age, while lower risk class membership was observed in correlation to non-condom contraception.

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