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Development of a novel risk prediction model for sudden cardiac death in childhood hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM risk-kids)

JAMA Cardiology Sep 27, 2019

Norrish G, Ding T, Field E, et al. - Researchers conducted a cohort study of 1,024 consecutively assessed children (age ≤ 16 years) to develop and validate a sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk prediction model that could provide individualized risk estimates in children with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). Using preselected predictor variables (unexplained syncope, maximal left-ventricular wall thickness, left atrial diameter, left-ventricular outflow tract gradient, and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia) identified from the literature, the model was developed. Using bootstrapping, internal validation of the model’s ability to predict risk at 5 years was done. Using readily obtained clinical risk factors, this new validated risk stratification model for SCD in childhood HCM can provide individualized risk estimates at 5 years. External validation studies in various patient populations are needed to show the precision of the predictions of this model.
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