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Clinical risk model for predicting 1‐year mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions Mar 22, 2021

Yamamoto M, Otsuka T, Shimura T, et al. - Researchers sought to develop a reliable risk model for predicting 1‐year mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) given the relevance of determining 1‐year life expectancy when examining appropriate indicators for TAVR. A total of 2,588 patients who underwent TAVR were evaluated utilizing data from the Optimized CathEter vAlvular iNtervention (OCEAN) Japanese multicenter registry from October 2013 to May 2017. In the derivation cohort, a multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed following as independent predictors of 1‐year mortality after TAVR: gender, BMI, Clinical Frailty Scale, atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease, prior cardiac surgery, serum albumin, renal function as estimated glomerular filtration rate, and presence of pulmonary disease. The risk prediction model developed using these variables revealed high discrimination ability and acceptable calibration with area under the curve of 0.763 in the receiver operating characteristics curve analysis and a Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 statistic of 5.96 in the validation cohort. Overall findings suggest the possible utility of this risk prediction model for 1‐year mortality as a reliable tool for risk stratification and identification of adequate candidates in patients undergoing TAVR.

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