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Clinical risk model for predicting 1‐year mortality after transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Catheterization and Cardiovascular Interventions Aug 05, 2020

Yamamoto M, Otsuka T, Shimura T, et al. - This Japanese multicenter study with derivation and validation cohorts is done to develop a reliable risk model for predicting 1‐year death post-transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Participants were 2,588 patients who had TAVR. Independent predictors of 1‐year death post-TAVR in the derivation cohort were: sex, body mass index, Clinical Frailty Scale, atrial fibrillation, peripheral artery disease, prior cardiac surgery, serum albumin, renal function as estimated glomerular filtration rate, and presence of pulmonary disease, as shown by a multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk prediction model developed using these variables displayed high discrimination ability as well as acceptable calibration with area under the curve of 0.763 in the receiver operating characteristics curve analysis and a Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 statistic of 5.96, in the validation cohort. Overall, experts suggested the possible reliability of the risk prediction model for 1‐year mortality for the purpose of risk stratification as well as detection of adequate candidates in patients receiving TAVR.

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