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Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A retrospective cohort study

The Lancet Mar 18, 2020

Zhou F, Yu T, Du R, et al. - Since December, 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been reported in Wuhan, China. Researchers here investigated the related risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding. From Jinyintan Hospital and Wuhan Pulmonary Hospital (Wuhan, China), they assessed 191 patients (≥ 18 years old) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were studied in this retrospective, multicentre cohort study. Of these patients, 137 were discharged and 54 died in hospital by Jan 31, 2020. Comorbidity was reported in 91 (48%) patients, with hypertension being the most common (58 [30%] patients), followed by diabetes (36 [19%] patients) and coronary heart disease (15 [8%] patients).  As per multivariable regression, increasing odds of in-hospital death were observed in correlation with older age, higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, and d-dimer greater than 1 μg/mL on admission. These risk factors may allow clinicians to recognize patients with poor prognosis at an early stage. Viral shedding was observed for a median duration of 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) in survivors, but in non-survivors, SARS-CoV-2 was detectable until death. In survivors, the longest observed duration of viral shedding was 37 days. These data present the rationale for a strategy of isolation of infected patients and optimal antiviral interventions in the future.

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