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A novel risk stratification score for sudden cardiac death prediction in middle-aged, nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy patients: The ESTIMATED score

Canadian Journal of Cardiology Nov 23, 2019

Li X, Fan X, Li S, et al. - A risk score (ESTIMATED) based on late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiac magnetic resonance was developed that may assist in predicting sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) and left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 35%. Researchers followed-up 395 consecutive middle-aged patients with NIDCM for 3-years for SCD events. They developed the ESTIMATED score (constructed by LGE extent > 14%, syncope, atrial flutter/fibrillation, non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, advanced atrioventricular block, and age ≤ 20 or > 50 years) and verified it in 295 primary prevention patients, and confirmed its predictive value by comparing the SCD events between the high-risk patients stratified by the score and 100 secondary prevention patients. The score showed good calibrations for SCD prediction in the derivation (C-statistic 0.80, 95%CI 0.74-0.86) and validation set (C-statistic 0.80, 95%CI 0.71-0.87). This score may assist in identification of candidates for primary prevention implantable-cardioverter-defibrillator in patients with NIDCM.
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