Chen X, Wang Q, Hu Y, et al. - Researchers attempted to construct a nomogram that could be of practical use to predict severe exacerbation risk in COPD patients at three and five years. For this purpose, they analyzed 1,711 COPD patients with prospective follow-up data available. The participants were obtained from Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) collected from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center. BMI, severe exacerbations in the previous year, comorbidity index, post-bronchodilator FEV₁% predicted, and white blood cells were identified as variables, following stepwise regression analysis. A predictive nomogram was developed. The concordance index of the nomogram was identified to be 0.74, demonstrating better performance than ADO, BODE and DOSE risk score. Experts noted that there was a great agreement between nomogram predicted likelihood and actual risk. Overall, the usefulness of this newly developed nomogram was revealed as an instrument to evaluate the likelihood of severe exacerbations at three and five years in patients suffering from COPD. In addition, this nomogram could aid clinicians in stratifying patients and affording optimal therapies.