People in the UK, US, and China have a higher risk of dying early from chronic conditions than those in Italy, France, South Korea, and Australia.

These are the findings of the most detailed global analysis of deaths from so-called non-communicable diseases (NCDs)—chronic conditions including cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes.

The research, led by Imperial College London, World Health Organization, and NCD Alliance, reveals that a 30-year-old woman in the UK has a 9% chance of dying from four key NCDs—cancer, cardiovascular disease (which includes heart disease and stroke), chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes—before her 70th birthday, compared to a 12% chance for a woman living in the US and 6% for a woman living in Japan.

Meanwhile a 30-year-old man living in the UK has a 13% chance of dying from an NCD before age 70, compared to 11% for a man living in Switzerland and 18% for a man living in the US.

The analysis, published today in The Lancet, also revealed the majority of the world's nations—including the UK, US, and China—look likely to fall short of the United Nations (UN) target for reducing the number of premature deaths from NCDs.

Professor Majid Ezzati, from Imperial’s School of Public Health, who led the study, said: “NCDs are the main cause of premature death for most countries. Poverty, uncontrolled marketing of alcohol and tobacco by multinational industries, and weak health care systems are making chronic diseases a larger danger to human health than traditional foes, such as bacteria and viruses.”

Too many people dying too soon

NCDs kill nearly 41 million people a year, making up seven out of ten deaths globally, 17 million of these deaths are classed as premature (ie, before the age of 70).

The new research is published ahead of a key UN meeting on NCDs next week. In 2015, the UN set the goal of a one-third reduction in premature deaths (between the ages of 30 and 70 years) from four key NCDs by the year 2030.

The group behind this research, who are collectively known as NCD Countdown 2030, warn that their findings suggest the UN target will be missed in all but 35 nations for women and 30 nations for men.

The study also reveals men and women in most countries around the world have a higher risk of dying prematurely from NCDs than from infectious diseases, such as malaria or HIV.

US, UK, and China falling short

The researchers analyzed data on deaths from NCDs for more than 180 nations. Their findings revealed the lowest risks of dying early from NCDs were seen in high-income countries, especially in South Korea, Japan, Switzerland, and Australia.

But other high-income countries are lagging behind the leaders, including the UK (which ranks 17th for men, 27th for women), the US (53rd for men, 44th for women), and China (80th for men, 76th for women).
Overall, women in South Korea, Japan, Spain, and Switzerland were least likely to die prematurely from the four key NCDs. The countries with the lowest risk for men were Iceland, Switzerland, Sweden, and Norway.

In contrast, men in central Asia (Mongolia, Kazakhstan) and eastern Europe (Russia, Belarus) were among the most likely to die from the four key NCDs before the age of 70. For women, parts of sub-Saharan Africa (Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire), Guyana, Afghanistan, Yemen, and Papua New Guinea were among those with the greatest risk of premature death from the four key NCDs.

The study reveals that only 35 countries are on track to meet the UN target for women and only 30 countries for men.

Some of those countries on track to meet the UN target for both men and women include Denmark, New Zealand, Norway, and South Korea as well as Brazil, Iran, and some of the high-risk eastern European countries. By comparison, the UK, Australia, France, Germany, India, and China will fail to hit the target for both sexes.

The authors say if NCD deaths decline slightly faster in a further 50 countries (for women) and 35 countries (for men), they too would achieve the target.

According to the analysis, the situation is deteriorating or stagnating in 15 countries for women, including the US, and 24 for men.

Katie Dain, from the NCD Alliance, said: “We are sleepwalking into a sick future because of severely inadequate progress on NCDs. Post the UN High Level Meeting, NCD Countdown 2030 will assist in holding governments and donors accountable and help to ensure that the opportunity before us next week to renew, reinforce, and enhance commitments to reducing the burden of NCDs, translates the rhetoric into reality.”