Researchers from The University of Manchester have forecast there will be an increased risk of infection from fungi over the coming years, including a significant spread of some fungal pathogens across Europe, the extent of which will depend on global actions to mitigate climate change. 

Less climate mitigation will increase the spread of fungal pathogens in certain areas, putting more people at risk.

In a new study, published on preprint platform Research Square [researchsquare.com] and funded by Wellcome [wellcome.org], the effects of rising temperatures on infection-causing fungi have been mapped under different climate change mitigation scenarios until the year 2100. Using climate modelling and forecasts, Dr. Norman van Rhijn at the University of Manchester and colleagues have mapped how the global distributions of three fungal pathogens (Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus niger)could be expected to change as a result.

The rise of pathogenic fungi is a real concern and is being driven by climate change. Fungi are incredibly adaptable organisms, with large, malleable genomes that allow them to colonise new geographies and survive as their environment changes.

Dr. Norman van Rhijn said, “Changes in environmental factors, such as humidity and extreme weather events, will change habitats and drive fungal adaptation and spread.

“We’ve already seen the emergence of the fungus Candida auris due to rising temperatures, but until now, we had little information on how other fungi might respond to this change in the environment.  Fungi are relatively under-researched compared to viruses and parasites, but these maps show that fungal pathogens will likely impact most areas of the world in the future. Raising awareness and developing effective interventions for fungal pathogens will be essential to mitigate the consequences of this.”

The maps show that in a fossil fuel-dependent economy, as outlined in the IPCC scenario of SSP585 [sos.noaa.gov], the climate will change to become suitable for fungal pathogens to spread to new geographies, with a marked increase in Europe.

The spread of Aspergillus flavus could increase by about 16%, putting 1 million more people at risk of infection from this deadly fungal pathogen in Europe. This fungus is known to cause severe infections and is resistant to many antifungals available.

This is an especially concerning trend as many fungal infections have high mortality rates, partly because of the lack of diagnostics, vaccines and treatment options as well as a lack of awareness of fungal infections. Additionally, as fungi are more similar to humans than other pathogens, developing anti-fungal treatments without toxic side effects is challenging.

The predictions also show that the spread of Aspergillus fumigatus could increase by 77.5% and potentially expose 9 million people in Europe. This is one of the most common fungal pathogens responsible for life-threatening infections in humans and affects the lungs.